Three things have caused me to get a bit concerned about this flu thing.
First, I've been comparing local reports to the national news, and it's clear that many suspected and probable flu cases are not being reported at the national level. I think the major media made a decision not to report any cases until they are officially confirmed by the CDC. That's understandable, because if they overstate the dangers, they may be ignored by the public when the "real thing" comes down the pike. For instance, the second (more lethal) wave of the pandemic.
That said, the news is currently understating the situation, and there are dangers on that side, too. It's currently taking about a week to get a case confirmed, and a week in pandemic time is an eon. When they say "probable case" this almost always means it's swine flu. Usually it means the person has been in Mexico, came down with flu symptoms inside the correct incubation period (4-10 days), and tests positive for influenza A and/or a non-human flu strain. Virtually all of these will eventually be confirmed, according to geneticist / virologist Dr. Henry Niman (see below). But you and I won't hear about them, except in local news, until days later.
"Suspected" cases involve people who took a trip to Mexico or had close exposure to someone who has been to Mexico, plus flu symptoms inside the correct time frame. The trouble is, "flu symptoms" can include almost anything-- vomiting, wheezing, joint pain, coughing, depression, diarrhea, you name it. That said, the primary symptom of influenza seems to be a high fever for multiple days. I had a flu in 2003 which was, given the flu strains circulating in my area, almost certainly an H1N1. For four days I was unable to get my temperature below 102 degrees despite taking both Tylenol and ibuprofen simultaneously. (During this time I was pregnant and was told "Don't let your temperature go above 102 degrees.")
There are at least 4 Michigan counties with suspected, probable, or confirmed swine flu cases (Livingston, Wayne, Ottawa, and Washtenaw). The Livingston County case was in the local news two days ago, but Michigan only made "the list" in the national news as of today. In Wayne County, it's a student at Woodhaven High School who has come down with what appears to be swine flu, though that's pending confirmation. In his case the incubation period was long (10 days) and we will have to see how many classmates may have become infected during that time.
The second thing was, I came across this Flu News page, which paints a considerably more dire picture than you get from the New York Times et al. Did you know Texas has cancelled all high school sports until May 11? Or that 4 schools are closed in Milwaukee? Check it out.
Third, I watched this video by Henry Niman, who flu-watchers will know and respect as an expert in flu viruses and their epidemiology. He feels this flu parellels the 1918 flu in multiple ways. He thinks we haven't had as many fatalities in the US only because we lag behind Mexico, time-wise... but the American deaths are coming. And the real deaths are coming in the fall, if things continue to progress in 1918 fashion.
I can't really imagine a death toll in developed nations that would be quite as high as in 1918. Philadelphia, which I've mentioned before because they were hit hard by the 1918 flu, was stupid enough to have parades in spite of the clearly burgeoning flu epidemic. We're unlikely to be that stupid again. In Ann Arbor in 1918, the university was shut down, all public venues were closed, church services were suspended, and students were quarantined in their dorms. The death toll was very low.
In the third world... whew. I hope it doesn't happen.
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