A lot of people disregard disastrous predictions because they usually don't come true. But from my perspective, what's amazing is how often these predictions almost come true. While our esteemed politicians may not know how to do anything but attend cocktail parties and bloviate, the people behind the curtain who actually run the show turn out to be reasonably competent... on occasion. We come to the brink of disaster time and again, only to be dragged back by the seat of our pants.
We've nearly run out of diesel fuel in certain regions of the country, as predicted by many peak oil analysts, but we've never had the trucking system break down. We've nearly run out of heating fuel in the Northeast -- we've come within a few days' worth of usage, in fact -- but, again, contrary to some peak oil forecasts, the fuel did not quite run out. To go way back to the Clinton era, some non-establishment researchers thought the Serbian conflict was all about launching another war (cold or otherwise) with Russia. And indeed, Wesley Clark nearly bombed the Russians, but the British general receiving those orders simply refused to carry them out. Nuclear weapons were almost shipped off to the Middle East in late August 2007, right around the time Webster Tarpley was going nuts on radio shows hollering about imminent war with Iran-- but those nuclear weapons were stopped at Barksdale Air Force base (apparently costing several soldiers their lives).
And although I don't know of anyone who predicted a possible incident with Russia in 2001, some worrying things happened vis-a-vis Russia on September 11th. That morning, when we went to Defcon 3 and locked down the Norad facility made famous in the movie War Games, both the US and Russia were conducting nuclear war drills over the North Pole. (During such war games, the other side cannot be 100% sure that it's truly all a simulation, and not an actual attack. Thus, the simultaneous war exercises, just in case.) Additionally, it appeared to some in the foreign intelligence community that a coup might be taking place (i.e., where the hell was Bush? and what of the multiple threats against Air Force One?). We had to call the Russians and request that we both stand down, to avoid any unfortunate accidents. Both sides behaved like rational adults and backed off.
One way to look at near-disasters is to be scared by how close we came to catastrophe (the Cuban Missile Crisis being first on my list), but on the other hand, it suggests there are better and smarter people behind the closed doors of the Establishment than you might think from watching C-SPAN. They have snatched us back from the precipice quite a few times.
I think analysts issue dire warnings because they feel they're acting proportionally to the danger. True, they may be wrong, but if they're not it's going to be very bad. This is why I've urged people to get a couple of weeks' worth of food together and shove it in a closet or the basement or wherever. Sure, bank closures or diesel shortages or massive power outages may carry only a small probability of occurrence. But if you don't buy that spaghetti and one day you're explaining to your hungry kids that there is nothing to eat, well... better to be safe than sorry. I always think of the line "A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!" You don't ever want to go there. The better reaction to Doom and Gloom predictions is to listen to them, take them with a grain of salt, but see if there's anything simple you can do to prepare for the given calamity.
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On October 7 of last year I passed along my own dire warning about bank closures, under the title The Fed buys us another day:
[The news today] is all very bad, but we did not suffer utter implosion today. Jim Sinclair wrote: "If the Fed hadn't taken the rather strange action they took today by becoming OTC derivative dealers themselves this would have been the day the USA banking system imploded."
Sinclair is predicting a bank holiday, and quite soon. If you do have extra cash available in your bank accounts (lucky you), go and withdraw some. If not, consider going to a discount or bulk store and getting some pasta and pasta sauce and canned tuna and canned beans on credit. The US government says you should have 2 weeks worth of food on hand, anyway... and this way, if for some reason there is a banking crisis, you will not have to scramble and borrow cash from others to buy something to eat. If you bank with Bank of America, this goes double for you.
Today I found out that on October 10, three days later, the UK came within a hair's breadth of having a systemic bank closure (including ATM withdrawals, known as "hole in the wall" withdrawals in the UK).
Britain was just three hours away from going bust last year after a secret run on the banks, one of Gordon Brown's Ministers has revealed.
City Minister Paul Myners disclosed that on Friday, October 10, the country was 'very close' to a complete banking collapse after 'major depositors' attempted to withdraw their money en masse.
The Mail on Sunday has been told that the Treasury was preparing for the banks to shut their doors to all customers, terminate electronic transfers and even block hole-in-the-wall cash withdrawals. Only frantic behind-the-scenes efforts averted financial meltdown. (source: International Forecaster newsletter)
Had UK banking shut down, investors in other countries would have doubted their own banking systems, and the panic would have spread. As the UK is 5 hours ahead of us, there would have been ample time on Friday, October 10 to create bank runs in the United States.
The doomsayers are not way off the mark, but when disaster is narrowly averted the general public rarely hears so much as a whisper about it. Even when bad things do happen (say, a 6,000-point fall in the Dow in 12 months) many people fail to notice the magnitude because it happens gradually and things seem more or less normal. If someone had said, as the Dow approached its 14,165 high, that it would dip below 8,000 within a year, they would surely have been labeled the most pessimistic of all doomsayers. All the while the Dow was plummeting, television was broadcasting its 24/7 "Everything Is Normal" message, and anyone who became too disheartened was ridiculed because "the market always bounces back" or some such tripe.
This is not a normal environment. This is the reversal of globalization, the end of some currencies, the Great Depression II, and a time of insurrections and revolutions. You may disagree with the doomsayers, but it's no time to ignore them.
You make a great point about kids being moved on to the next reading level as soon as possible, keeping them constantly frustrated. That's really unfortunate. Even when kids are reading books below their reading level, they are still cementing spelling & grammar rules simply by absorbing them from the text. Plus, not only does it make them more confident readers, but it allows them to read the book more dramatically (whether out loud, or just using their internal, mental voice) because they aren't distracted constantly by challenging words. My daughter used to say that yes, she could read, but she couldn't read "like the audiobooks." She meant that it was hard to imagine the setting, the voices, & the emotions because the text itself was still quite challenging. I submit that if you can't get wrapped up in a book enough to imagine the characters & their tone of voice & so on, you are not fully reading that book. But of course, in school it's simply a matter of being able to say the words aloud. (I'm sure we all remember listening to other kids reading aloud in a total monotone, with no regard for the ends of sentences!)
When we found the Freddy the Pig audiobooks, I realized that my kids can learn an immense amount of vocabulary, random cultural knowledge, figures of speech & proverbs, grammar and syntax, all from audiobooks. All that's missing is deciphering symbols (reading, as it's often measured in school) and correctly arranging symbols (spelling and punctuation). They get everything from an audiobook except the mechanics, in other words. In fact, they get more, because the voice acting is usually quite good, and those vocal cues help kids understand unfamiliar slang or vocabulary. The Freddy books are chock full of old proverbs and odd slang (plus the word "phaeton"). I guarantee my daughter learns more listening to Freddy than reading any of the crappy early readers used in my old elementary school.